Employment decline forecasts for US states

October 23 2001 - The American Economics Group forecasted employment decline for each US state and the District of Columbia on the basis of its macroeconomic forecast. Forecasts for each industry were developed by Dr. Michael Evans, chief economist of American Economics Group, and revised after the events of September 11 attacks. Charles W. de Seve, American Economics Group's president then applied these employment forecasts by industry to measure which states would fare best and worst in the current recession. According to de Seve, these results forecast how each state's economy will perform in the coming months.

He said: "When evaluating state economies, jobs are the best indicator because they show economic activity. You can't look at sales alone, because they spill over a state's border and don't necessarily impact the local economy as directly as jobs. Though we expect this recession to be relatively shallow, unfortunately some states will be harder hit because of the specific industries that dominate their local economies."

Best (0% to -1.4%) 1. Washington, DC 2. Maryland 3. Delaware 4. Louisiana 5. North Dakota 6. West Virginia 7. New Mexico 8. Alaska 9. Virginia 10. Oklahoma 11. Nebraska 12. Kansas 13. Wyoming 14. Montana

2nd Best (-1.5% to -1.7%) 1. Texas 2. Washington 3. Idaho 4. Rhode Island 5. Colorado 6. Florida 7. Alabama 8. Iowa 9. Maine 10. Georgia 11. California 12. Massachusetts 13. New Jersey 14. Oregon

2nd Worst (-1.8% to -2.0%) 1. Utah 2. Connecticut 3. Missouri 4. South Carolina 5. Arkansas 6. South Dakota 7. Pennsylvania 8. Mississippi 9. North Carolina 10. Illinois 11. Kentucky 12. New York

Worst (-2.1% to -6%) 1. Minnesota 2. Arizona 3. Ohio 4. Hawaii 5. Wisconsin 6. Michigan 7. New Hampshire 8. Tennessee 9. Vermont 10. Indiana 11. Nevada

Growth ranges are expected change in employment 2001 Q2 to trough for each state. States ordered in each tier from best to worst.

American Economics Group, Inc. is a firm of professional economists serving both private and public sector clients. They say that "for more than 25 years, we have provided clear and effective economic analysis, with the technical competence and credibility expected of a leader in the field."

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